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More Retired Fed Employees in 2017, but Still No ‘Tsunami’

March 25, 2018

The so-called “retirement tsunami” has been a federal workforce expert’s clarion, dooming call- the idea that as Baby Boomers age out of the workforce and retire, there will be a massive exodus of employees, replaced by an inexperienced workforce with big shoes to fill. Such an event would leave most federal agencies without the much-needed instructional talent and knowledge. The increased calls for severe reforms in the federal retirement system, the impending budget cuts, and the uncertainty surrounding presidential transition were some of the signs that prompted experts to predict this ‘tsunami.’

According to a study that was conducted in 2014 by the Government Accountability Office, over 31% of federal employees were expected to retire in 2017. Also, the Office of Personnel Management data revealed that the number of federal employees that are 50 years and above constitutes 45% of the total federal workforce. However, contrary to this data, the 2017 employee evacuation never came to pass.

These reasons, interestingly, were not often factors in retirement- most employees that were interviewed claimed that they retired as a result of personal reasons. Only a small percentage of federal employees that retired in 2017 cited buyouts, low confidence, and budget cuts as their primary reasons for retirement. The recent OPM data revealed that the number of federal employees that were eligible for retirement was 93, 713 while the 2017 figure was 95,923.

However, these figures are low as compared to the number of federal employees that filed for retirement in previous years. Between 2011-2014, it is interesting to know that the figures were more than 100,000 in each year. However, some workforce experts insist that the country is yet to experience the expected “retirement tsunami.” The fact that the majority of the workforce is getting older justifies the current concerns. Although a significant number of employees are applying for retirement, the number is not as high as was earlier expected.

Why Employees left in 2017

Eligibility was the main reason why over 96,000 federal employees left federal services in 2017. However, other reasons such leadership changes at various agencies and buyouts were also some of the reasons for retirement in 2017. Also, other federal employees retire as result of financial reasons. For instance, one retiree that was interviewed claimed that his goal before retiring was to eliminate his debt. Finally, changes in the work environment independent of any larger impetus also made some federal employees leave federal service.