Not affiliated with The United States Office of Personnel Management or any government agency

Not affiliated with The United States Office of Personnel Management or any government agency

How the Wrong TSP Choices Now Could Mean Rationing Retirement Income Later

Key Takeaways

  • Small missteps in how you manage your TSP today could force you to dramatically reduce your withdrawals later, undermining your entire retirement plan.

  • Smart allocation, proper withdrawal timing, and attention to TSP rules in 2025 are essential to securing steady, sustainable retirement income.

The Critical Role Your TSP Plays in Retirement Stability

Your Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) is not just a savings account; it is the engine that powers your financial independence after you leave government service. In 2025, with increased life expectancy, inflation pressures, and healthcare costs steadily climbing, your TSP strategy needs to be much sharper than it was a decade ago. Without careful planning, you could find yourself rationing withdrawals just to make ends meet.

Why 2025 Is a Turning Point for TSP Management

Several factors make 2025 a crucial year for public sector employees considering retirement planning:

  • Longer Life Expectancy: Many retirees must now plan for 30 or more years of retirement income.

  • Higher Healthcare Costs: Even with FEHB or PSHB coverage, out-of-pocket expenses are rising steadily.

  • Market Volatility: Economic uncertainty demands more resilient asset allocation.

  • Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs): Starting at age 73 in 2025 for most retirees, RMDs can create tax complications if not handled properly.

If you do not address these realities now, your TSP could deplete faster than you expect, forcing unwanted lifestyle reductions later.

Understanding TSP Asset Allocation Mistakes

Choosing the wrong TSP investment mix during your career or early retirement years can create lasting consequences. Here’s why:

Overloading on the G Fund

The G Fund is attractive because of its guaranteed principal and modest interest. However, overreliance can result in returns that barely outpace inflation, eroding your purchasing power over time.

Ignoring the Power of Diversification

Spreading your investments among the C, S, I, F, and G Funds helps manage risk. Concentrating heavily in one area, such as only stocks or only bonds, could leave you vulnerable to market downturns or inflation spikes.

Not Adjusting Your Allocation With Age

What worked in your 40s or 50s does not necessarily work in your 60s or 70s. In 2025, TSP participants are encouraged to gradually shift toward a mix that protects against volatility while still enabling growth.

Timing Matters: The Danger of Poor Withdrawal Strategies

When you take money from your TSP matters just as much as how you invested it.

The Sequence of Withdrawals Problem

Withdrawing funds during market downturns early in retirement, a phenomenon known as “sequence of returns risk,” can permanently shrink your nest egg. Without a buffer strategy, you may have to cut back drastically later.

Underestimating Required Minimum Distributions

Once you reach 73, you must start withdrawing minimum amounts annually from your TSP. Failing to plan for RMDs can result in:

  • Unexpectedly large taxable income

  • Medicare Part B premium surcharges

  • Bigger tax bills overall

The ripple effects could leave you with less usable income than you anticipated.

Common Misconceptions That Lead to Poor TSP Decisions

Misinformation or outdated assumptions can quietly undermine your entire retirement strategy.

Thinking the Default Funds Are Enough

Automatic enrollment or lifecycle funds are a starting point, not a set-it-and-forget-it solution. In 2025, your needs may have outgrown what default choices offer.

Believing a Conservative Approach Guarantees Safety

Too much caution can backfire. Inadequate growth may force you to start rationing withdrawals in your 70s or 80s, just when healthcare needs peak.

Assuming You Will Naturally Spend Less in Retirement

While some expenses decline, others like healthcare, travel, and home maintenance often rise. Without inflation-adjusted planning, you might end up needing more, not less, each year.

How Inflation in 2025 Impacts Your TSP Value

Inflation silently chips away at fixed incomes. Even “moderate” annual inflation of 3% cuts purchasing power nearly in half over 24 years.

TSP participants must:

  • Factor in rising living costs in retirement income projections.

  • Choose investments that have historically outpaced inflation.

  • Review and adjust their strategies annually.

Failing to adjust your plan today could mean deciding between “wants” and “needs” much sooner than you expect.

Smart Moves to Protect Your Retirement Future

You can avoid future rationing by taking proactive steps today.

1. Perform a TSP Checkup Annually

Review your investment mix, contribution levels, and withdrawal plans at least once a year. Major life events or market shifts may require more frequent reviews.

2. Diversify Intelligently

Aim for a mix of stocks, bonds, and stable investments appropriate for your risk tolerance and time horizon. Diversification reduces the chance that one market event derails your entire plan.

3. Plan Withdrawal Strategies Carefully

Consider setting aside two to three years’ worth of expenses in stable assets like the G Fund to draw on during market downturns, giving other investments time to recover.

4. Understand RMD Requirements Early

Know your mandatory withdrawal age and prepare for the tax implications. Adjust your withdrawal and investment strategies before you hit 73.

5. Inflation-Proof Your Income

Incorporate investments that have growth potential to help offset the impact of inflation over time.

What Happens if You Get It Wrong

If you neglect these strategies, you may face:

  • Slashed monthly withdrawals

  • Selling investments at losses

  • Losing FEHB premium payments through missed minimum income thresholds

  • Straining Social Security benefits earlier than planned

Most devastatingly, you may find yourself unable to fund major health events or long-term care needs when you need them most.

TSP Changes to Watch in 2025

Stay informed about ongoing updates affecting TSP accounts, including:

  • RMD Age Changes: 73 for those turning 73 in 2025.

  • Catch-Up Contributions: Higher limits apply starting at age 50.

  • Withdrawal Flexibility: Expanded options allow you to customize your distributions more effectively.

These features create opportunities—but only if you use them wisely.

Staying Ahead: Your Next Steps

To avoid a future filled with financial uncertainty, your action plan should include:

  • Meeting with a financial professional to stress-test your retirement strategy

  • Understanding how inflation impacts your unique situation

  • Adjusting your TSP allocation thoughtfully, not reactively

  • Building in safeguards for healthcare and unexpected expenses

Starting now, while you still have flexibility, gives you a far better chance at the retirement lifestyle you worked hard to earn.

Protect Your Retirement Income Before It’s Too Late

Making the wrong TSP decisions now could mean rationing your retirement dollars later, undermining decades of diligent savings. By taking steps today to strengthen your investment allocation, plan thoughtful withdrawals, and prepare for inflation, you set yourself up for decades of stable, confident retirement income. If you need guidance, connect with a licensed professional listed on this website who can help you evaluate your TSP strategy and make the necessary adjustments while you still have time.

Todd Carmack grew up in Dubuque, Iowa, where he learned the concepts of hard work and the value of a dollar. Todd spent years in Boy Scouts and achieved the honor of Eagle Scout. Todd graduated from Iowa State University, moved to Chicago, spent a few years managing restaurants, and started working in financial services and insurance, helping families prepare for the high cost of college for their children. After spending years in the insurance industry, Todd moved to Arizona and started working with Federal Employees, offing education and options on their benefits. Becoming a Financial Advisor / Fiduciary can help people properly plan for the future. Todd also enjoys cooking and traveling in his free time.

Disclosure: Investment advisory services are offered through BWM Advisory, LLC (BWM). BWM is registered as an Investment Advisor located in Scottsdale, Arizona, and only conducts business in states where it is properly licensed, notice has been filed, or is excluded from notice filing requirements. This information is not a complete analysis of the topic(s) discussed, is general in nature, and is not personalized investment advice. Nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. There are risks involved with investing which may include (but are not limited to) market fluctuations and possible loss of principal value. Carefully consider the risks and possible consequences involved prior to making any investment decision. You should consult a professional tax or investment advisor regarding tax and investment implications before taking any investment actions or implementing any investment strategies.

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